How Likely Is That?

Curiosity probabilities

How likely is that?

Browse ballpark odds for rare (and not-so-rare) events — then compare any two and get a shareable “You're N× more likely…” card.

Featured compares

All events

Nature

Struck by lightning

1 in 15,300

lifetime (US)

Nature

Dying in a shark attack

1 in 3,748,067

lifetime (US)

Luck

Winning Powerball jackpot

1 in 292,201,338

per ticket

Luck

Winning Mega Millions jackpot

1 in 302,575,350

per ticket

Travel

Dying in a plane crash

1 in 11,000,000

per flight (commercial)

Accidents

Dying in a car accident

1 in 93

lifetime (US)

Accidents

Drowning

1 in 1,006

lifetime (US)

Accidents

Dying in a fire

1 in 1,399

lifetime (US)

Accidents

Dying from a fall

1 in 98

lifetime (US)

Nature

Dying in a tornado

1 in 60,000

lifetime (US avg)

Nature

Dying in an earthquake

1 in 150,000

lifetime (US avg)

Space

Dying from an asteroid impact

1 in 75,000

lifetime (illustrative)

Space

Hit by a meteorite

1 in 1,600,000

lifetime (illustrative)

Luck

Hole-in-one (amateur)

1 in 12,500

per round (amateur)

Luck

Bowling a perfect game (300)

1 in 11,500

per game (amateur)

Luck

Royal flush (5-card poker)

1 in 649,740

per 5-card hand

Weird

Finding a four-leaf clover

1 in 10,000

per clover inspected (illustrative)

Life

Having identical twins

1 in 250

per birth (natural, approx.)

Life

Living to 100

1 in 100

lifetime (approx. US birth cohort)

Weird

Being born on leap day

1 in 1,461

per birth (calendar)

Travel

Lost luggage

1 in 150

per passenger segment (illustrative)

Travel

Getting a middle seat

1 in 3

per coach seat (3-across)

Weird

Winning an Oscar (actor)

1 in 11,500,000

lifetime (random US adult, illustrative)

Weird

Becoming US president

1 in 10,000,000

lifetime (illustrative)

Weird

Killed by a falling coconut

1 in 500,000,000

lifetime (illustrative / myth-aware)

Luck

10 heads in a row

1 in 1,024

per sequence of 10 fair flips

Weird

Shared birthday (23 people)

~50.7% (about 1 in 2)

group of 23 people

Accidents

Getting food poisoning

1 in 6

per year (US)

Accidents

Being bitten by a dog

1 in 70

per year (US, illustrative)

Luck

Winning a raffle

1 in 100

per ticket (100-ticket raffle)