How Likely Is That?

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Luck

Hole-in-one (amateur)

Odds

1 in 12,500

per round (amateur) · General (amateur golf)

What this means

For a typical amateur round, a hole-in-one is rare but not lottery-rare — and more likely than a royal flush in a single 5-card poker hand.

Methodology

Widely cited amateur hole-in-one odds around 1 in 12,500 per round. Pros are closer to 1 in 2,500. Skill, course, and hole selection matter a lot.

Updated 2026-01-15

Source

Golf Digest / PGA media estimates ↗

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Odds of a hole in one: 1 in 12,500 (per round (amateur)). — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/odds/odds-of-a-hole-in-one

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