🎉 Shared birthday (23 people) vs ✈️ Dying in a plane crash
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You're 5.5 million× more likely to share a birthday in a group of 23
than to die in a plane crash
Periods differ: Shared birthday (23 people) is framed as group of 23 people, while Dying in a plane crash is per flight (commercial). The multiplier is a raw ratio of the 1-in-X figures — not a normalized lifetime risk. Compare cautiously.
Shared birthday (23 people)
~50.7% (about 1 in 2)
group of 23 people
Dying in a plane crash
1 in 11,000,000
per flight (commercial)
How we calculated this
Each figure is “1 in X.” The larger X is the rarer event. Dividing that number by the more common one gives the multiplier: you're 5.5 million× more likely to share a birthday in a group of 23. When the periods differ, this is a raw ratio of those figures, not a lifetime-normalized risk.
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You're 5.5 million× more likely to share a birthday in a group of 23 (~50.7% (about 1 in 2), group of 23 people) than to die in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000, per flight (commercial)). ⚠️ Periods differ (group of 23 people vs per flight (commercial)) — compare cautiously. — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/compare/birthday-paradox-odds-vs-odds-of-dying-in-a-plane-crash
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