✈️ Dying in a plane crash vs 🎫 Winning a raffle
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You're 110,000× more likely to win a raffle
than to die in a plane crash
Periods differ: Winning a raffle is framed as per ticket (100-ticket raffle), while Dying in a plane crash is per flight (commercial). The multiplier is a raw ratio of the 1-in-X figures — not a normalized lifetime risk. Compare cautiously.
Dying in a plane crash
1 in 11,000,000
per flight (commercial)
Winning a raffle
1 in 100
per ticket (100-ticket raffle)
How we calculated this
Each figure is “1 in X.” The larger X is the rarer event. Dividing that number by the more common one gives the multiplier: you're 110,000× more likely to win a raffle. When the periods differ, this is a raw ratio of those figures, not a lifetime-normalized risk.
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You're 110,000× more likely to win a raffle (1 in 100, per ticket (100-ticket raffle)) than to die in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000, per flight (commercial)). ⚠️ Periods differ (per ticket (100-ticket raffle) vs per flight (commercial)) — compare cautiously. — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/compare/odds-of-dying-in-a-plane-crash-vs-odds-of-winning-a-raffle
Want a different pair? Open the picker · 30 events available