🎂 Living to 100 vs 🎫 Winning a raffle
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You're 1.00× more likely to win a raffle
than to live to 100
Periods differ: Winning a raffle is framed as per ticket (100-ticket raffle), while Living to 100 is lifetime (approx. US birth cohort). The multiplier is a raw ratio of the 1-in-X figures — not a normalized lifetime risk. Compare cautiously.
Living to 100
1 in 100
lifetime (approx. US birth cohort)
Winning a raffle
1 in 100
per ticket (100-ticket raffle)
How we calculated this
Each figure is “1 in X.” The larger X is the rarer event. Dividing that number by the more common one gives the multiplier: you're 1.00× more likely to win a raffle. When the periods differ, this is a raw ratio of those figures, not a lifetime-normalized risk.
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You're 1.00× more likely to win a raffle (1 in 100, per ticket (100-ticket raffle)) than to live to 100 (1 in 100, lifetime (approx. US birth cohort)). ⚠️ Periods differ (per ticket (100-ticket raffle) vs lifetime (approx. US birth cohort)) — compare cautiously. — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/compare/odds-of-living-to-100-vs-odds-of-winning-a-raffle
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