🏚️ Dying in an earthquake vs 🎫 Winning a raffle
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You're 1,500× more likely to win a raffle
than to die in an earthquake
Periods differ: Winning a raffle is framed as per ticket (100-ticket raffle), while Dying in an earthquake is lifetime (US avg). The multiplier is a raw ratio of the 1-in-X figures — not a normalized lifetime risk. Compare cautiously.
Dying in an earthquake
1 in 150,000
lifetime (US avg)
Winning a raffle
1 in 100
per ticket (100-ticket raffle)
How we calculated this
Each figure is “1 in X.” The larger X is the rarer event. Dividing that number by the more common one gives the multiplier: you're 1,500× more likely to win a raffle. When the periods differ, this is a raw ratio of those figures, not a lifetime-normalized risk.
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You're 1,500× more likely to win a raffle (1 in 100, per ticket (100-ticket raffle)) than to die in an earthquake (1 in 150,000, lifetime (US avg)). ⚠️ Periods differ (per ticket (100-ticket raffle) vs lifetime (US avg)) — compare cautiously. — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/compare/odds-of-dying-in-an-earthquake-vs-odds-of-winning-a-raffle
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