🃏 Royal flush (5-card poker) vs 🏚️ Dying in an earthquake
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You're 4.33× more likely to die in an earthquake
than to get a royal flush
Periods differ: Dying in an earthquake is framed as lifetime (US avg), while Royal flush (5-card poker) is per 5-card hand. The multiplier is a raw ratio of the 1-in-X figures — not a normalized lifetime risk. Compare cautiously.
Royal flush (5-card poker)
1 in 649,740
per 5-card hand
Dying in an earthquake
1 in 150,000
lifetime (US avg)
How we calculated this
Each figure is “1 in X.” The larger X is the rarer event. Dividing that number by the more common one gives the multiplier: you're 4.33× more likely to die in an earthquake. When the periods differ, this is a raw ratio of those figures, not a lifetime-normalized risk.
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You're 4.33× more likely to die in an earthquake (1 in 150,000, lifetime (US avg)) than to get a royal flush (1 in 649,740, per 5-card hand). ⚠️ Periods differ (lifetime (US avg) vs per 5-card hand) — compare cautiously. — How Likely Is That? https://www.howlikelyisthat.com/compare/odds-of-a-royal-flush-vs-odds-of-dying-in-an-earthquake
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